Three primaries were held in competitive states yesterday. It appears that most of the media hype around insurgent right-wing Republicans was just that--hype. Recognized "establishment" candidates won pretty easily over Tea Party-backed opponents in the following states:
Kentucky. Sen. Mitch McConnell, as expected, handily defeated businessman Matt Bevin by almost 25 points; Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes won even more handily, with over 75% of the Democratic vote. I'm still calling this one a TOSS-UP, although to be honest, I probably wasn't going to change it to "leans Democrat" even if Bevin had won.
Georgia. Like Sec. Grimes, Nunn wins with 75% of the Democratic vote. As expected, no Republican won a majority of the primary vote; however, establishment Republicans can breathe a sigh of relief as neither Rep. Paul "Evolution-And-The-Big-Bang-Are-A-Pack-Of-Lies-From-The-Pit-Of-Hell" Broun nor Rep. Phil "Todd-Akin-Is-Partly-Right-On-Legitimate-Rape" Gingrey won more than 10% of the vote. As polls predicted, the top two finishers were Georgia Ports Authority member David Perdue (30.6%) and Rep. Jack Kingston (25.8%). The next two months are theirs to slug out until the runoff is held on July 22. Had Reps. Broun and Gingrey both made the runoff, I would probably have changed it to "leans Democrat", but as it is it appears that Republicans have nominated their two most viable candidates, so this one's still a TOSS-UP.
Oregon. The primary field here was actually largely a pack of unknowns. Exhibit A? No federal or statewide elected Republicans elected to run against incumbent Democrat Sen. Jeff Merkley. The winner ended up being Portland neurosurgeon Dr. Monica Wehby, who by many metrics is the establishment candidate: she has received endorsements from Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, and despite being pro-life, she has said that Roe v. Wade (1973) isn't something the Supreme Court can just overturn. There isn't much polling in Oregon; however, since a Vox Populi poll a few weeks ago showed Dr. Wehby leading Sen. Merkley 45-41, we expect more polls to come out from the Beaver State. Until then we're moving this one to LIKELY DEMOCRAT, not necessarily because of the results of the primary election but really because a change in the rating there was overdue.
Does it mean Republicans are learning? Right-wing candidates probably cost them a Senate majority in 2010 and in 2012; I think it's fair to say, from Sen. McConnell's early ads against Bevin as well as Sec. Grimes to Sen. Lindsey Graham's massive fundraising drive in his Senate election, that Republican establishment candidates aren't treating the Tea Party as a joke anymore.
More to come.
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