Nationalizing the Races

One way to look at the 2014 midterms--any midterm, really--is to consider them to be a referendum on President Obama. That is, voters will vote mostly based on their perception of President Obama rather than on their perceptions of the candidates running in their district or state. In such a world, where local races are completely nationalized, Democrats are doomed. As of December 2013 (which is a long time ago according to campaign time, but recent enough to make some judgments), in only one state--his native Hawaii--is his approval rating above 60%; moreover, of the 12 most disapproving states, two, Alaska and Arkansas, are home to two of the most vulnerable Democratic senators in the country. 

Of course, we don't live in that world. Regardless of whatever pundits might say about how the president's favorability impacts the races in the states, the fact is that the elections this year don't have President Obama vs. a generic Republican on the ballot. They're about two candidates that have their own records and their own personal appeal on which to run.

Obama Ascendant: Is It Enough?

The results of the elections in November will in no small part be determined by President Obama's popularity by the end of the year. Republicans, who have been relentlessly hammering the president over the Affordable Care Act for the last four years, know it, and they've squeezed quite a bit of mileage out of it. Democrats know it too--especially Democrats running in red states that Gov. Romney won in 2012. The latest ad from Sen. Mary Landrieu shows the Louisiana Democrat calling the Obama administration policies toward oil and natural gas "simply wrong":

Obamacare and the House: In the Same Boat, Sink or Swim

Two days have passed since the deadline for the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate. March 31 was the last day you were allowed to not have health insurance without paying an extra tax. So, in true American fashion, hundreds of thousands of uninsured Americans put off their chores until the last day, then scrambled to connect to HealthCare.gov and flooded the already overloaded call centers.

The numbers came in yesterday: new insurance sign-ups had reached the magic 7 million number that was the benchmark for success by the Department of Health and Human Services back when they were rolling out HealthCare.gov. Meanwhile, the quintessential Louisiana Democrat (and we're not talking about any of the Landrieus here) had this to say about the implications for November:

"Democratic voters might now be motivated to stand by the administration’s top legislative achievement more than ever — the same ABC/Post poll found that Democratic support for ObamaCare has reached 76 percent, which is up 11 percentage points from January. My fellow Democrats feared we didn’t have a motivating issue.... I like being on the side of healthcare consumer. I think that is a winning argument for Democrats." -- James Carville, "O-Care a Winning Bet for Dems," The Hill, April 1, 2014