Ratings Update: September 19, 2014

We're less than seven weeks out from the elections, and it's around now that some uncertainty begins dropping out of the forecast--mainly because 1) there's more polling out, giving us a more accurate picture of where candidates stand, and 2) there's less time for the underdogs to make up the difference before the election. So a lot of our ratings changes this time will be adjusting for that.

Gerrymandering: Tough to Avoid

One of the most attractive scapegoats for the polarization of Congress is the practice of gerrymandering, the deliberate drawing of House districts to achieve a desired result in congressional elections. Because the districts are (for the most part) drawn by state legislatures, it's easy to see why this is a tempting argument: it places blame squarely on the politicians in Carson City or wherever that the people dislike so much. (Don't take it personally, Nevadans--I used you as the example because by several metrics you're the most gerrymandered state in the Union. It's only partially your fault, which I'll get to. For the most part I'll be dumping on Pennsylvania.) Pennsylvania is actually one of the less gerrymandered states for its size (it's apportioned 18 congressional districts, so there's a lot of room for creativity):

Pennsylvania House districts, 113th Congress (2013 - 2015).