Showing posts with label Thom Tillis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Thom Tillis. Show all posts

Saturday, June 21, 2014

The Spoiler Effect: Polls vs. Reality

More often than not, third-party candidates have little effect on the ultimate result of an election. The eventual performance of most third-party candidates is lower than the margin of error of most polls (2%-4%), and so a poll that includes every single candidate running in the election (yes, even the Rent Is Too Damn High Party) provides no useful information about the likely results of the election. But when a third party candidate begins polling well (above the margin of error), pollsters would do well to include that candidate in their survey questions, so as to more closely reflect the range of choices voters have. A poll that gives a choice between Al Gore, George W. Bush, and Ralph Nader, for example, could give a different result from a poll that gives a choice between just Gore and Bush.

So in an election like the Senate race in North Carolina, where Libertarian Sean Haugh has been supported by about 10% of respondents on average in the polls that include his name, it'd probably be a good idea to continue putting his name in polls, since even considering sampling error Haugh's performance is probably fairly strong. Certainly it's strong enough to possibly tip the scales in favor of either candidate in a close race like North Carolina.

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Close-Up: Turning Out Tar Heelers

North Carolina in 2008 was simply something that was not supposed to happen. Four years earlier, in 2004, the state voted for President George W. Bush over Sen. John Kerry by almost 13 points--despite Sen. Kerry's running mate, Sen. John Edwards, hailing from the town of Robbins, in Moore County. In 2007, incumbent Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole was expected to win re-election comfortably over her Democratic challenger, state senator Kay Hagan, and the state was not expected to go to Sen. Obama--if it did, it was said, it would just be icing on the cake. 

As it turns out, it was: Sen. Obama didn't really need North Carolina's 15 electoral when he had 350 more. On the other hand, Hagan's surprise victory, below, was no mere icing; her vote proved invaluable in obtaining the 60-seat supermajority required for the Senate to pass the Affordable Care Act in 2009.

2008 North Carolina Senate election by county and margin.