Today sees another slew of primaries in no fewer than five states, but by far the most watched election today will be Mississippi's Republican primary runoff election, due to its status as pretty much the last chance for the Tea Party to knock off an incumbent Republican, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor's stunning loss in VA-7 two weeks ago notwithstanding. As you might have read before, Mississippi's GOP primary was a nailbiter in which state senator Chris McDaniel would have knocked off longtime incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran were it not for Mississippi's runoff law, which states that should no candidate receive 50% + 1 of the vote, a runoff election between the top two finishers must be held to determine the winner, much like in Georgia.
That runoff is today, and from the looks of it McDaniel is favored to win the runoff. My average has him leading Sen. Cochran 49-44, with about an 85% chance of victory for the Tea Party-backed McDaniel. And not only is McDaniel doing at least as well as Sen. Cochran in all polling (the worst he's done is trail Sen. Cochran by one point, well within the margin of error), his performance has been remarkably consistent: barring one poll from NSON Opinion, McDaniel has remained in the high 40s to low 50s ever since the primary. Similarly, Sen. Cochran, barring one poll, has remained in the low-to-mid 40s since the primary. In other words, neither candidate seems to have any momentum: McDaniel isn't going down, and Sen. Cochran isn't going up. And that, of course, is good for McDaniel, who has the lead and looks ready to maintain the lead as the polls open. MCDANIEL VICTORY
Other states:
