Close-Up: Independent Candidates in Sparsely Populated Prairie States Are Ruining Our Probabilities

Polls in the Great Plains delivered another defiant middle finger to our conventional wisdom about the Senate races this year. SurveyUSA released its latest survey of the state, and while Democratic no-name Rick Weiland remains at his sub-30% support, the major change is that this poll is the first one to put independent and former Republican Sen. Larry Pressler in a clear second place behind former Gov. Mike Rounds.

There's a bit of a paradox here, though. When we talk about third party candidates we inevitably wonder: is the candidate spoiling votes for the Democrat or the Republican? In South Dakota, before ever looking at the polls, we would guess that Pressler was spoiling votes for Rounds, the Republican, since Pressler represented South Dakota in the Senate as a Republican for 18 years before losing the seat to the man who currently holds it, retiring Sen. Tim Johnson. The trends seem to confirm this--Pressler's support has generally grown since the summer, while Rounds still remains ahead but seems to have trouble breaking the low 40s in the polls compared to the summer, where his best performance was 59% in the first iteration of the YouGov panel survey. (Note, however, that that survey did not include Pressler as an option.)

Larry Pressler, then (1979) and now (2013).

Super Tuesday Mk. II Update: 9:44 PM

Some preliminary results in:

• Two incumbent Republican governors have easily defeated primary challengers. South Dakota Gov. Dennis Daugaard and Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley, with under 30% of the vote in, both lead their primary challengers by 60-70%.
• In South Dakota again, former Gov. Mike Rounds has secured the Republican nomination for Senate with 57.8% of the vote and just over 30% reporting. He's set to face Democrat Rick Weiland, who ran unopposed, in November.

And now, two non-results:

• New Jersey: Over half of the vote is in and the Republican vote is still split four ways with no clear leader: businessman Rich Pezzullo is ahead with 31% of the vote, but only five points ahead of political consultant Jeff Bell.
• Mississippi: The one that everyone's said they're watching, and as it turns out, it may well have been. Sen. Thad Cochran leads state senator Chris McDaniel by 600 votes with 32% of the vote in--but it may not be enough to avoid a grueling runoff campaign, since neither have 50% thanks to Thomas Carey, who has 1.6% of the vote. Cochran leads McDaniel 49.6-48.8. Meanwhile, former Democratic U.S. Rep. Travis Childers has easily won the Democratic nomination.