With Super Tuesday Mk. II three days behind us, I'm ready to make some changes, in addition to the change in Arkansas's gubernatorial election from TOSS-UP to LEANS REPUBLICAN.
In the Senate:
Mississippi yielded only one of two surprises from Tuesday: state senator Chris McDaniel placed ahead of incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran in the Republican primary in Mississippi; however, thanks to Thomas Carey's 1.5% share of the vote, neither of the two received the majority required to avoid a runoff on June 24. I slightly favor McDaniel in the runoff based on his performance in the primary, although with three weeks before the runoff anything can really happen. This runoff is a TOSS-UP. Former Rep. Travis Childers, the Democratic nominee, would vastly prefer to face McDaniel in the general election due to the latter's associations with neo-Confederate groups. He's probably right to do so; in the event that McDaniel wins the runoff, I'd change this race to LIKELY REPUBLICAN. (Remember, though, that this is conditional on McDaniel winning the runoff.)
Iowa was the other surprise from Tuesday: while state senator Joni Ernst's victory was completely in accordance with the polls, her 56% share of the vote defied polls that pointed to a victory that would just clear the 35% threshold required to avoid a convention nomination. The first polls taken after her victory (the most recent since three weeks ago) both have her leading, suggesting that earlier polls underestimated her support. This may be because Rep. Bruce Braley was the Democratic front runner long before the primary, while Ernst was only slightly ahead in a crowded field; now that both candidates have settled, poll respondents have a clear choice. Instead of leaning Democratic, I'd say this race is now a TOSS-UP.
Governor's mansions
Maine (like Oregon in the last update) is really just an overdue change. There is no reason to think, from the limited polling available, that incumbent Republican Gov. Paul LePage is in as much danger as, say, Gov. Tom Corbett of Pennsylvania, who has been down by more than 20 points in all polls taken since the primary there. Therefore I'm moving this one to LEANS DEMOCRAT. Bear in mind that both Rep. Mike Michaud, the Democratic front runner, and Gov. LePage both face complications in independent candidate Eliot Cutler, who came within 2 points of winning the governorship from Gov. LePage in 2010. Cutler isn't polling nearly as well this year, but Gov. LePage should still be wary of his candidacy--and hope that he takes more votes from Rep. Michaud (as often happens to Maine Democrats).
Other than that, the relative dearth of surprises from Tuesday means that the status quo is maintained. Democrats are still likely to pick up 2-3 governorships; the major difference now is that, should Sen. Cochran win his runoff (keeping Mississippi safely in the Republican column), control of the Senate is still a toss-up, but one that now favors Republican control instead of Democratic control, which is what I previously had.
EDIT: I forgot to mention a rating for Georgia's runoff election in the Republican primary between Rep. Jack Kingston and David Perdue. At the present time, by two very important metrics--polls and fundraising--Rep. Kingston has much greater support than Perdue does. In polls Rep. Kingston leads by double-digit margins. In fundraising, not only does Rep. Kingston still have almost $1.3 million on hand compared to Perdue's "mere" $460,000 (a huge advantage considering that the election is still a month and a half away), exactly none of Rep. Kingston's war chest is self-financed, which suggests that his fundraising machine is much more sustainable than Perdue's, which is pretty much all from his wallet at this point. I therefore call this one a LIKELY KINGSTON.
