Here we are, at the end of the line. Two years and $3.7 billion later, you can all finally go to bed (maybe). Expect the story of tonight to be the undoing of two waves--one, the Democratic wave in 2008 that picked up eight seats in the Senate, and two, the Republican wave in 2010 that netted six governorships.
Senate races
11 Senate races remain at least marginally competitive (i.e., both sides have a greater than 1% chance of winning). An I indicates the incumbent.
In each of the following state summaries, I've identified the bellwether counties. Bellwether counties are those counties that have historically voted similarly to the state as a whole. A rule of thumb for identifying a state's bellwether county is to locate the county where the state's largest city is located; the largest suburban county right outside that county is the bellwether county. Complications arise when you have two regional candidates (such as two U.S. Representatives vying for office), but the pattern tends to hold pretty well.
In each of the following state summaries, I've identified the bellwether counties. Bellwether counties are those counties that have historically voted similarly to the state as a whole. A rule of thumb for identifying a state's bellwether county is to locate the county where the state's largest city is located; the largest suburban county right outside that county is the bellwether county. Complications arise when you have two regional candidates (such as two U.S. Representatives vying for office), but the pattern tends to hold pretty well.
Alaska - Mark Begich (I) vs. Dan Sullivan
LEANS REPUBLICAN
Projected margin: 47.1% Begich, 48.7% Sullivan
Win probability: 37% Begich, 63% Sullivan
Bellwether borough: Municipality of Anchorage. Alaska bucks the pattern I just described above because 1) it's Alaska and 2) it accounts for nearly half the state's electorate. Winning Anchorage even by small margins (as incumbent Senator Mark Begich did in 2008) can deliver the state--albeit by the same small margins, which is exactly what happened that year.
Arkansas - Mark Pryor (I) vs. Tom Cotton
LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Projected vote share: 45.4% Pryor, 51.9% Cotton
Win probability: 12% Pryor, 88% Cotton
Bellwether county: Hot Spring County, Yell County. The southwest was a bellwether region of the state in 2010--although it had higher proportions of black voters, vote margins in counties like Hempstead, Howard, and Lafayette more or less mirrored the 21-point shellacking John Boozman delivered to incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln. However, that region seems less likely to represent the entire state this year since Republican Tom Cotton (AR-4) represents that region in Congress. Instead, this year I would pay attention to the rural-to-suburban-ish counties outside the Little Rock metro area. Counties like Hot Spring and Yell are whiter than the statewide electorate, but voted essentially in line with not only Boozman's victory in 2010, but also with Governor Mike Beebe's 30-point re-election that year.
Bellwether county: Hot Spring County, Yell County. The southwest was a bellwether region of the state in 2010--although it had higher proportions of black voters, vote margins in counties like Hempstead, Howard, and Lafayette more or less mirrored the 21-point shellacking John Boozman delivered to incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln. However, that region seems less likely to represent the entire state this year since Republican Tom Cotton (AR-4) represents that region in Congress. Instead, this year I would pay attention to the rural-to-suburban-ish counties outside the Little Rock metro area. Counties like Hot Spring and Yell are whiter than the statewide electorate, but voted essentially in line with not only Boozman's victory in 2010, but also with Governor Mike Beebe's 30-point re-election that year.
Colorado - Mark Udall (I) vs. Cory Gardner
LEANS REPUBLICAN
Projected vote share: 46.9% Udall, 49.5% Gardner
Win probability: 32% Udall, 68% Gardner
Bellwether county: Jefferson County. Denver is known as one of the most liberal cities in the country (more recently it's become known as America's stoner Mecca), but the county just to the city's southwest, Jefferson County, is an almost perfect bellwether for the entire state. In 2008, when Colorado voted in Mark Udall by a margin of 53% to 42%, Jefferson County voted for him 53% to 42%. When the state elected Barack Obama 54-45 that year, Jefferson County voted for him 54-45. In 2010, Jefferson County came in two points more Democratic (49-46) than the state's 48-47 victory for Michael Bennet. And in 2012--you get the idea.
Bellwether county: Jefferson County. Denver is known as one of the most liberal cities in the country (more recently it's become known as America's stoner Mecca), but the county just to the city's southwest, Jefferson County, is an almost perfect bellwether for the entire state. In 2008, when Colorado voted in Mark Udall by a margin of 53% to 42%, Jefferson County voted for him 53% to 42%. When the state elected Barack Obama 54-45 that year, Jefferson County voted for him 54-45. In 2010, Jefferson County came in two points more Democratic (49-46) than the state's 48-47 victory for Michael Bennet. And in 2012--you get the idea.
Georgia - Michelle Nunn vs. David Perdue
LEANS REPUBLICAN
Projected vote share: 47.5% Nunn, 49.5% Perdue
Win probability: 14% Nunn, 33% Perdue, 53% runoff
Bellwether county: Cobb County and Henry County, both at the edges of the Atlanta metro area. Cobb County tends to vote slightly more Republican than the rest of the state (by about 2 points in the 2008 and 2012 elections, and about 5 points in the 2010 Senate election), while Henry County tends to vote slightly more Democratic (by about 2 points in 2008, 2010, and 2012). But since this race is so tight, they could very well both get the final result wrong.
Bellwether county: Cobb County and Henry County, both at the edges of the Atlanta metro area. Cobb County tends to vote slightly more Republican than the rest of the state (by about 2 points in the 2008 and 2012 elections, and about 5 points in the 2010 Senate election), while Henry County tends to vote slightly more Democratic (by about 2 points in 2008, 2010, and 2012). But since this race is so tight, they could very well both get the final result wrong.
Iowa - Bruce Braley vs. Joni Ernst
TOSS-UP
Projected vote share: 48.5% Braley, 49.9% Ernst
Win probability: 39% Braley, 61% Ernst
Bellwether county: Jasper County, to the east of Des Moines, is Iowa's rendition of Colorado's Jefferson County. Jasper voted about one point more Democratic than Iowa as a whole did in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections as well as the 2010 Senate election, and voted about three points more Republican than the entire state in the 2008 Senate election.
Bellwether county: Jasper County, to the east of Des Moines, is Iowa's rendition of Colorado's Jefferson County. Jasper voted about one point more Democratic than Iowa as a whole did in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections as well as the 2010 Senate election, and voted about three points more Republican than the entire state in the 2008 Senate election.
Kansas - Greg Orman vs. Pat Roberts (I)
TOSS-UP
Projected vote share: 48.8% Orman, 48.4% Roberts
Win probability: 52% Orman, 48% Roberts
Bellwether county: Two suburban counties, although it's been a while since Kansas had a bell to wether at all. The election this year is a mess anyway, with a strong independent and no Democrat in the Senate race and a moderate Republican revolt in the gubernatorial one, but if you were to look at one county it'd be Jefferson, just northeast of Topeka. Alternatively, you could look at Johnson, just south of KC Kansas.
Bellwether county: Two suburban counties, although it's been a while since Kansas had a bell to wether at all. The election this year is a mess anyway, with a strong independent and no Democrat in the Senate race and a moderate Republican revolt in the gubernatorial one, but if you were to look at one county it'd be Jefferson, just northeast of Topeka. Alternatively, you could look at Johnson, just south of KC Kansas.
Kentucky - Alison Lundergan Grimes vs. Mitch McConnell (I)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Projected vote share: 45.0% Grimes, 53.4% McConnell
Win probability: 8% Grimes, 92% McConnell
Bellwether county: Woodford County, just southwest of Lexington. Since Louisville recently swallowed up its suburbs in a merger between the city and the county (now a "consolidated city-county"), the trick doesn't work as well there. Instead, it does work for the state's second-largest city, Lexington. The bellwether county of Woodford voted 2 points more Democratic than the rest of the state in 2010 and 2012, and one point more Republican in 2008. Conveniently, it also sits near the dividing line between the coal counties of the east, from which Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes hails, and the rest of the state, where everybody else lives.
Bellwether county: Woodford County, just southwest of Lexington. Since Louisville recently swallowed up its suburbs in a merger between the city and the county (now a "consolidated city-county"), the trick doesn't work as well there. Instead, it does work for the state's second-largest city, Lexington. The bellwether county of Woodford voted 2 points more Democratic than the rest of the state in 2010 and 2012, and one point more Republican in 2008. Conveniently, it also sits near the dividing line between the coal counties of the east, from which Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes hails, and the rest of the state, where everybody else lives.
Louisiana - Mary Landrieu (I) vs. Bill Cassidy vs. Rob Maness vs. a bunch of other people
LIKELY RUNOFF (primary)
Projected vote share: 44.4% Landrieu, 38.5% Cassidy, 12.3% Maness
Win probability: 15% Landrieu, 3% Cassidy, 82% runoff
Bellwether parish: St. Martin, southwest of Baton Rouge (again, not the largest city, but a rule of thumb is just a rule of thumb). In presidential elections the bellwether parish tended to be Concordia, substantially further north of of Baton Rouge, but in 2010 and 2008 St. Martin was right on the mark in the Senate elections, hitting both Landrieu's 52-46 victory in 2008 and David Vitter's 57-38 victory in 2010 exactly.
Bellwether parish: St. Martin, southwest of Baton Rouge (again, not the largest city, but a rule of thumb is just a rule of thumb). In presidential elections the bellwether parish tended to be Concordia, substantially further north of of Baton Rouge, but in 2010 and 2008 St. Martin was right on the mark in the Senate elections, hitting both Landrieu's 52-46 victory in 2008 and David Vitter's 57-38 victory in 2010 exactly.
Michigan - Gary Peters vs. Terri Lynn Land
SAFE DEMOCRAT
Projected vote share: 54.5% Peters, 41.4% Land
Win probability: 97% Peters, 4% Land
Bellwether county: Oakland County, northwest of Detroit. In 2008 it was one point more Republican than the state in both the Senate and presidential elections; this trend continued in 2012 (although Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow substantially outperformed her statewide margin that year in Oakland).
Bellwether county: Oakland County, northwest of Detroit. In 2008 it was one point more Republican than the state in both the Senate and presidential elections; this trend continued in 2012 (although Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow substantially outperformed her statewide margin that year in Oakland).
New Hampshire - Jeanne Shaheen (I) vs. Scott Brown
LIKELY DEMOCRAT
Projected vote share: 52.0% Shaheen, 48.0% Brown
Win probability: 84% Shaheen, 16% Brown
Bellwether county: Merrimack County, north of the Manchester-Nashua micropolitan area. It clocks in at slightly more Democratic than the rest of the state, but is otherwise the best bellwether we've got in New Hampshire. In 2008, 2010, and 2012, Merrimack voted 3-4 points more Democratic than the Granite State as a whole.
Bellwether county: Merrimack County, north of the Manchester-Nashua micropolitan area. It clocks in at slightly more Democratic than the rest of the state, but is otherwise the best bellwether we've got in New Hampshire. In 2008, 2010, and 2012, Merrimack voted 3-4 points more Democratic than the Granite State as a whole.
North Carolina - Kay Hagan (I) vs. Thom Tillis
LEANS DEMOCRAT
Projected vote share: 49.0% Hagan, 46.1% Tillis
Win probability: 71% Hagan, 29% Tillis
Bellwether county: Lenoir County, which is a bit odd considering its distance from either of the two North Carolina urban centers in Wake County (Raleigh) and Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). However, it performed pretty well as a bellwether in the 2008 and 2012 elections, especially in Kay Hagan's 2008 Senate election, where it voted just one point more Republican than the state as a whole.
Bellwether county: Lenoir County, which is a bit odd considering its distance from either of the two North Carolina urban centers in Wake County (Raleigh) and Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). However, it performed pretty well as a bellwether in the 2008 and 2012 elections, especially in Kay Hagan's 2008 Senate election, where it voted just one point more Republican than the state as a whole.
Gubernatorial races
Gubernatorial contests are somewhat more competitive--probably because while although this is a midterm year, most of the incumbents running for re-election won it in the very strong Republican year of 2010, so they ground they stand on is not so solid anymore. 15 races remain competitive.
Alaska - Bill Walker vs. Sean Parnell (I)
TOSS-UP
Projected vote share: 49.3% Walker, 46.9% Parnell
Win probability: 62% Walker, 38% Parnell
Bellwether borough: The Municipality of Anchorage (for reasons described above). However, I would pay attention to the borough of Valdez as well, since Walker was mayor of the city of Valdez years ago. Might not be a bellwether, but it sure will be interesting.
Bellwether borough: The Municipality of Anchorage (for reasons described above). However, I would pay attention to the borough of Valdez as well, since Walker was mayor of the city of Valdez years ago. Might not be a bellwether, but it sure will be interesting.
Arizona - Fred DuVal vs. Doug Ducey
LEANS REPUBLICAN
Projected vote share: 44.8% DuVal, 51.6% Ducey
Win probability: 20% DuVal, 80% Ducey
Bellwether county: Maricopa County, home to Phoenix, the capital and largest city.
Bellwether county: Maricopa County, home to Phoenix, the capital and largest city.
Arkansas - Mike Ross vs. Asa Hutchinson
LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Projected vote share: 45.1% Ross, 51.4% Hutchinson
Win probability: 15% Ross, 85% Hutchinson
Bellwether county: Hot Spring County and Yell County (see above).
Bellwether county: Hot Spring County and Yell County (see above).
Colorado - John Hickenlooper (I) vs. Bob Beauprez
TOSS-UP
Projected vote share: 48.1% Hickenlooper, 47.3% Beauprez
Win probability: 56% Hickenlooper, 44% Beauprez
Bellwether county: Jefferson County, as explained above. I should also add that the 51% of the vote Jefferson County gave to Hickenlooper in 2010 was identical to the 51% of the vote the state as a whole gave him.
Bellwether county: Jefferson County, as explained above. I should also add that the 51% of the vote Jefferson County gave to Hickenlooper in 2010 was identical to the 51% of the vote the state as a whole gave him.
Connecticut - Dan Malloy (I) vs. Tom Foley
TOSS-UP
Projected vote share: 50.1% Malloy, 48.1% Foley
Win probability: 66% Malloy, 34% Foley
Bellwether county: New Haven County. Despite it being home to Yale University, New Haven County performed exceptionally well in the 2012 elections, hitting both President Obama's margin and Chris Murphy's margin exactly. It's worth noting, however, that it overestimated Malloy's performance across the state (by about 6 points) in 2010.
Bellwether county: New Haven County. Despite it being home to Yale University, New Haven County performed exceptionally well in the 2012 elections, hitting both President Obama's margin and Chris Murphy's margin exactly. It's worth noting, however, that it overestimated Malloy's performance across the state (by about 6 points) in 2010.
Florida - Charlie Crist vs. Rick Scott (I)
TOSS-UP
Projected vote share: 48.0% Crist, 47.1% Scott
Win probability: 52% Crist, 48% Scott
Bellwether county: Monroe County, west of Miami-Dade. In presidential elections, Monroe County has done very well; in senatorial elections (2010 and 2012) it's been a little less consistent. But in 2010's gubernatorial election, the county was spot on, giving Rick Scott a tiny lead over Alex Sink. The state as a whole would be decided 49-48.
Bellwether county: Monroe County, west of Miami-Dade. In presidential elections, Monroe County has done very well; in senatorial elections (2010 and 2012) it's been a little less consistent. But in 2010's gubernatorial election, the county was spot on, giving Rick Scott a tiny lead over Alex Sink. The state as a whole would be decided 49-48.
Georgia - Jason Carter vs. Nathan Deal (I)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Projected vote share: 45.8% Carter, 50.7% Deal
Win probability: 6% Carter, 52% Deal, 42% runoff
Bellwether county: Cobb and Henry Counties, see above.
Bellwether county: Cobb and Henry Counties, see above.
Hawaii - David Ige vs. Duke Aiona
LIKELY DEMOCRAT
Projected vote share: 51.0% Ige, 38.9% Aiona
Win probability: 86% Ige, 14% Aiona
Bellwether county: The entire state actually votes relatively homogeneously; the city of Honolulu tends to vote slightly more Republican than the rest of the state. If you want to watch a county, you'll probably want to watch the Big Island.
Bellwether county: The entire state actually votes relatively homogeneously; the city of Honolulu tends to vote slightly more Republican than the rest of the state. If you want to watch a county, you'll probably want to watch the Big Island.
Illinois - Pat Quinn (I) vs. Bruce Rauner
TOSS-UP
Projected vote share: 49.4% Quinn, 46.8% Rauner
Win probability: 72% Quinn, 28% Rauner
Bellwether county: It's actually quite difficult to find a good bellwether in Illinois, even using that rule of thumb--the overall blueness of the state actually drops off very quickly once you leave the Chicago city limits. One thing is for sure though: it no longer matters whether something will play in Peoria, since the city is substantially more Republican than the rest of the state.
Kansas - Paul Davis vs. Sam Brownback (I)
TOSS-UP
Projected vote share: 49.5% Davis, 47.8% Brownback
Win probability: 61% Davis, 39% Brownback
Bellwether county: Jefferson and Johnson Counties (see above). In the 2010 gubernatorial election, however, Johnson performed better as a bellwether--Jefferson was more Republican that year.
Bellwether county: Jefferson and Johnson Counties (see above). In the 2010 gubernatorial election, however, Johnson performed better as a bellwether--Jefferson was more Republican that year.
Massachusetts - Martha Coakley vs. Charlie Baker
LEANS REPUBLICAN
Projected vote share: 44.7% Coakley, 49.5% Baker
Win probability: 27% Coakley, 73% Baker
Bellwether county: What you could ask instead of "where is the bellwether?" is "where did Martha Coakley screw up in 2010?" The answer would lead you to Bristol County, on the southern shore. Scott Brown won by a comfortable margin there--more than his slim statewide victory, it's true--but the county predicted well Obama's margins across the state in 2008 and 2012.
Bellwether county: What you could ask instead of "where is the bellwether?" is "where did Martha Coakley screw up in 2010?" The answer would lead you to Bristol County, on the southern shore. Scott Brown won by a comfortable margin there--more than his slim statewide victory, it's true--but the county predicted well Obama's margins across the state in 2008 and 2012.
Maine - Mike Michaud vs. Paul LePage (I)
TOSS-UP
Projected vote share: 44.6% Michaud, 44.7% LePage
Win probability: 50% Michaud, 50% LePage
Bellwether county: York County, southwest of Portland. It got President Obama's vote share in 2008 and 2012 within one percentage point, as well as Senators Susan Collins and Angus King's vote shares those same years. It also got the right margin (though not vote share) in Governor LePage's 2010 election (it was a few points more Democratic than the state that year).
Bellwether county: York County, southwest of Portland. It got President Obama's vote share in 2008 and 2012 within one percentage point, as well as Senators Susan Collins and Angus King's vote shares those same years. It also got the right margin (though not vote share) in Governor LePage's 2010 election (it was a few points more Democratic than the state that year).
Michigan - Mark Schauer vs. Rick Snyder (I)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Projected vote share: 46.2% Schauer, 52.1% Snyder
Win probability: 15% Schauer, 85% Snyder
Bellwether county: Oakland County (see above). Just as Oakland went well for Democrats in 2008 and 2012, so it went well for Rick Snyder in 2010.
Bellwether county: Oakland County (see above). Just as Oakland went well for Democrats in 2008 and 2012, so it went well for Rick Snyder in 2010.
Rhode Island - Gina Raimondo vs. Allan Fung
LEANS DEMOCRAT
Projected vote share: 47.9% Raimondo, 43.1% Fung
Win probability: 69% Raimondo, 31% Fung
Bellwether county: Providence County, home to the state's capital and largest city of the same name. To begin with, Rhode Island only has four counties, so a bellwether here isn't really helpful. But Providence County, the most populous, got it pretty much right when Lincoln Chafee ran for governor in 2010 and was the closest in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, so the title of bellwether goes to it.
Wisconsin - Mary Burke vs. Scott Walker (I)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Projected vote share: 47.5% Burke, 51.9% Walker
Win probability: 19% Burke, 81% Walker
Bellwether county: Sauk County, northwest of Madison. When it comes to gubernatorial elections, it was dead on in 2010 and the 2012 recall. Alternatively, you could look at Kenosha County, south of Milwaukee, if you're following that rule of thumb I gave you, but it will probably be slightly more Democratic than you'd like.
Fingers crossed. That's all, folks.
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