Almost a month on from our first set of ratings, we've got new polling averages, new fundraising info, and we've also added 36 gubernatorial races to the mix as well as our original 36 Senate races. We're not going to list the ratings for all of our gubernatorial races here, but if you've been keeping up there are now two maps on the right-hand sidebar. We do, however, have some rating changes:
In the Senate:
Arkansas. We moved this one to LEANS REPUBLICAN quite a while ago due to incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor's consistent trailing in the polls behind Republican Rep. Tom Cotton. Sen. Pryor appeared to be in terrible shape considering the unpopularity of the Affordable Care Act and the memory of the midterm election four years ago, in which his Democratic colleague, Sen. Blanche Lincoln, got curb-stomped by over 20 points. However, the last few weeks' polling have seen something of a turnaround for Sen. Pryor: in the last five polls released in the last month, Rep. Cotton has not led in a single one. We're moving this race back to TOSS-UP.
Colorado. Used to be LIKELY DEMOCRAT, but now Republican front-runner Rep. Cory Gardner has pretty much caught up in polls. However, now that Rep. Gardner has reported his first-quarter fundraising, he still lags behind Sen. Mark Udall in fundraising by a factor of four. We now rate this race as LEANS DEMOCRAT.
In the Senate:
Arkansas. We moved this one to LEANS REPUBLICAN quite a while ago due to incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor's consistent trailing in the polls behind Republican Rep. Tom Cotton. Sen. Pryor appeared to be in terrible shape considering the unpopularity of the Affordable Care Act and the memory of the midterm election four years ago, in which his Democratic colleague, Sen. Blanche Lincoln, got curb-stomped by over 20 points. However, the last few weeks' polling have seen something of a turnaround for Sen. Pryor: in the last five polls released in the last month, Rep. Cotton has not led in a single one. We're moving this race back to TOSS-UP.
Colorado. Used to be LIKELY DEMOCRAT, but now Republican front-runner Rep. Cory Gardner has pretty much caught up in polls. However, now that Rep. Gardner has reported his first-quarter fundraising, he still lags behind Sen. Mark Udall in fundraising by a factor of four. We now rate this race as LEANS DEMOCRAT.
Gubernatorial elections:
Kansas. We put this at TOSS-UP originally because of Gov. Brownback's disappointing net approval ratings, which we didn't expect to have improved drastically from -18% in December. It was corroborated by two polls that put his opponent, House Minority Leader Paul Davis, two points ahead. We trust those polls less and less, first because only registered voters were polled (but we expect that to be less of an issue in a state that's 90% white), and second because the latest poll from Rasmussen has Gov. Brownback up 7 points against Rep. Davis. With President Obama's even worse approval ratings in Kansas and the state's Republican lean, we now rate the Sunflower State as LEANS REPUBLICAN.
South Carolina. Originally LEANS REPUBLICAN, Gov. Nikki Haley is now demonstrating good approval ratings, certainly much better than President Obama's, whether you take his national approval (poor) or his approval in South Carolina (terrible). At the same time, she has comfortable leads in polls. We're upgrading this one to LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
Florida. Originally TOSS-UP due to close polling and a favorable national environment for Republicans heading into November. However, former Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat Gov. Charlie Crist has led in all but one poll of the state in the past year--in some cases within the margin of error, but consistently enough that it's very likely that he is coming out slightly on top. And if we've learned anything from 2000, it's that slightly on top in Florida can mean a lot. Crist leads incumbent Gov. Rick Scott by a little under 3 points in our updated average. We're changing this one to LEANS DEMOCRAT.
Kansas. We put this at TOSS-UP originally because of Gov. Brownback's disappointing net approval ratings, which we didn't expect to have improved drastically from -18% in December. It was corroborated by two polls that put his opponent, House Minority Leader Paul Davis, two points ahead. We trust those polls less and less, first because only registered voters were polled (but we expect that to be less of an issue in a state that's 90% white), and second because the latest poll from Rasmussen has Gov. Brownback up 7 points against Rep. Davis. With President Obama's even worse approval ratings in Kansas and the state's Republican lean, we now rate the Sunflower State as LEANS REPUBLICAN.
South Carolina. Originally LEANS REPUBLICAN, Gov. Nikki Haley is now demonstrating good approval ratings, certainly much better than President Obama's, whether you take his national approval (poor) or his approval in South Carolina (terrible). At the same time, she has comfortable leads in polls. We're upgrading this one to LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
Florida. Originally TOSS-UP due to close polling and a favorable national environment for Republicans heading into November. However, former Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat Gov. Charlie Crist has led in all but one poll of the state in the past year--in some cases within the margin of error, but consistently enough that it's very likely that he is coming out slightly on top. And if we've learned anything from 2000, it's that slightly on top in Florida can mean a lot. Crist leads incumbent Gov. Rick Scott by a little under 3 points in our updated average. We're changing this one to LEANS DEMOCRAT.
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