Super Tuesday Mk. II and Quick Ratings Update: June 1, 2014

Normally I make the necessary rating changes at the end of the month; however, we have another Super Tuesday coming up, so we'll hold off on that until afterward in case we have any primary surprises. Not that we had any on the last Super Tuesday (May 20), but still. Primaries are going to be held in the following states:

• Alabama: 7 House, 1 Senate, 1 governor. Both incumbent Sen. Jeff Sessions and Gov. Robert Bentley are running for re-election; both are heavily favored to win renomination and re-election in November.
• California: 53 House, 1 governor. California has a "nonpartisan blanket primary" similar to Louisiana's "jungle primary", except the top two candidates in California's primaries are put on the ballot for November regardless of whether either won a majority of the vote. Incumbent Gov. Jerry Brown is running for, and is highly likely to win, an unprecedented fourth term as governor. 
• Iowa: 4 House, 1 Senate, 1 governor. Iowa has not-really-runoff provisions for primaries: if no candidate receives more than 35% of the vote in a party's primary, the party holds a statewide convention in July to nominate a candidate. This won't be a problem for incumbent Gov. Terry Branstad, who's likely to be easily re-nominated and re-elected, but it does pose problems for the Republican field in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin. State senator Joni Ernst leads the Republican pack but is just barely short of 35% of the vote. However, polls in Iowa show large numbers of undecided Republicans; it is highly likely that enough will break for Ernst for her to win without a convention fight. I predict that Ernst will win with more than 35%, although not with a majority. If she wins, she'll get to face U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, who has already won the Democratic primary by virtue of being the only candidate to file, in November.
• Mississippi: 4 House, 1 Senate. Last chance for the Tea Party here! State senator Chris McDaniel is polling very close to incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran--slightly behind, but very close, especially for a challenger to an old incumbent. Democrats, who have pinned their hopes on former Rep. Travis Childers, are hoping for a repeat of Indiana 2012, in which the Tea Party-supported state Treasurer Richard Mourdock swamped long-time moderate incumbent Sen. Dick Lugar in the primary and ended up losing in the general election. Still, you should never underestimate the power of incumbency and a reputation for bringing home the bacon, both of which Sen. Cochran has in spades. My money's on Sen. Cochran.
• Montana: 1 House, 1 Senate. Polling is scarce here, but the clear front-runner for the GOP primary is freshman Rep. Steve Daines. In the Democratic primary, "incumbent" Sen. John Walsh (and I put "incumbent" in quotation marks because he was appointed in February) is favored to win, but again, polling is scarce here and may have missed a surge in former Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger's popularity. Or not. I predict that Walsh wins this one and faces Rep. Daines in November.
• New Jersey: 12 House, 1 Senate. Home sweet home! Incumbent Sen. Cory Booker--and no air-quotes here, since he was elected solidly in a special election last year to replace the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg--was the only Democrat to file in time, and proceeds to November unhampered. Meanwhile, there is no clear front-runner among the Republican pack. If I were to pick one, it'd be Prof. Murray Sabrin, but only by virtue of his having run for the Republican primary in 2000 and 2008, which probably gives him slightly better name recognition statewide.
• New Mexico: 3 House, 1 Senate, 1 governor. Two incumbents--Democratic Sen. Tom Udall and Republican Gov. Susana Martinez--filed unopposed in their respective primaries. Sen. Udall's Republican opposition seems to be pretty much a toss-up at this point--both assistant D.A. David Clements and businessman Allen Weh trail Sen. Udall by about 20 points in the one poll taken of the race. Gov. Martinez's Democratic opposition is much more diverse, although I'd bet on Attorney General Gary King to win the Democratic nomination for governor, not just because he's the only statewide officeholder running in the Democratic field but also because of his father, the late former Gov. Bruce King, who served in Martinez's office for three terms over three decades. And we've gone over in detail what names can do for you.
• South Dakota: 1 House, 1 Senate, 1 governor. Incumbent Republican Gov. Dennis Daugaard has a safe road to both re-nomination on Tuesday and re-election in November against one of two little-known Democrats. In the Senate race, former Daschle aide Rick Weiland was the only Democrat to file; he will most likely face former Gov. Mike Rounds after the latter wins the Republican nomination.

Finally, one rating update (I won't update the map for it because I may just have to change it again depending on Tuesday's results):

Arkansas governor. Previously it seemed like Democratic Rep. Mike Ross wasn't doing too poorly against former Republican Rep. Asa Hutchinson, the 2006 nominee against current Gov. Mike Beebe. With Democrats clinging on at the state level with a popular governor, we weren't ready to call this anything but a toss-up. However, Rep. Ross appears to have faltered in polling, and a not-at-all unlikely loss for incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor could very well take down Rep. Ross as well. We're therefore moving this race to LEANS REPUBLICAN.