Long story short, some new fundraising data came in, which was really helpful to our model for splitting undecided voters. As a result, Democrats' chances ticked up in two gubernatorial races and ticked down in two others, with no change in the Senate, where Democrats have a 42% chance of retaining the chamber. Not a pure toss-up like it was a week ago, but if you've got a gun to your head you really don't want to bank on that.
And here are the gubernatorial races:
Democratic improvements:
- Illinois. Two new polls came out showing Gov. Pat Quinn ahead, which marked the first turnaround from the streak of leads for Bruce Rauner since the start of the year. But at the same time, both candidates have underwater approval ratings (Gov. Quinn significantly more so than Rauner), and Rauner has a much larger war chest at his disposal, with the potential to outspend the incumbent by almost 2 to 1. What appears to be keeping Gov. Quinn afloat in our model is his political experience--he's an incumbent governor running against a lesser-known businessman with no experience in political office, elected or appointed. Nevertheless, it's enough to buoy this race back to a TOSS-UP.
- Kansas. The polls here show House Minority Leader Paul Davis leading incumbent Gov. Sam Brownback by the quite substantial margin of 45-41. The limits of our estimates of this race are a little fuzzy, however, due to the fact that Davis's fundraising disclosures still haven't been released. As a result, we're forced to use an unofficial estimate that puts him at about $2.1 million. Using that figure predicts that undecided voters should break pretty much evenly between the two candidates, meaning that Davis maintains a definite edge against Gov. Brownback. LEANS DEMOCRATIC
Now some places where Democrats aren't doing so hot anymore:
- Colorado. Simply due to the fact that Gov. John Hickenlooper is a little behind in our polling average (in no small part due to a Quinnipiac poll that gave former Rep. Bob Beauprez a 50-40 lead), we concluded that whatever gains Gov. Hickenlooper might expect to gain among undecided voters due to his higher name recognition, incumbency status, and larger campaign war chest, wouldn't be enough to put him at a large lead. He's got better than a 50-50 chance--but not much better. TOSS-UP
- Massachusetts. The question on Bay State Democrats' minds is this: could Attorney General Martha Coakley screw it up again? They, of course, have in mind the fiasco of the 2010 special election to replace the late Sen. Ted Kennedy, where she somehow managed to lose in a state that hadn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1972. In a gubernatorial race, however, it wouldn't be quite as much her fault; despite Massachusetts's deep blueness at the federal level, it elected three consecutive Republicans as governor before current Gov. Deval Patrick won in the Democratic wave year of 2006. In fact, the last time Democrat elected as governor before Patrick was Michael Dukakis in 1986--and like Coakley, Dukakis was also known for being awkward in photo ops, bland on the stump, and wooden when talking to voters. This year's Republican nominee, Charlie Baker, lost a tight challenge to Gov. Patrick in 2010, but against a less charismatic candidate (ahem, Martha Coakley) he could very well win it this time around. TOSS-UP
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