Stragglers: Georgia Runoff and the Rest

One thing that's bugging me right about now is the fact that I don't have access to Stata, the statistical package in which I do a lot of the stuff that goes in here. Fortunately, I do still have my Excel spreadsheets to enter polls and election results and create graphs, and I still have Microsoft Paint to make those maps I love so much. And a lot of the primaries are over already. As far as competitive races go, only the following primaries have yet to be held:

• July 22:
• Georgia, U.S. Senate GOP primary runoff: Kingston vs. Perdue. Perdue has lead in one poll, but three other polls from around the same time suggest otherwise. Meanwhile, Rep. Kingston has better demonstrated that he can raise money from supporters, as opposed to paying for his campaign out of pocket as Perdue has done. LEANS KINGSTON
• August 5:
• Kansas, gubernatorial GOP primary: Brownback vs. Winn. Incumbent Gov. Sam Brownback isn't doing so hot for an incumbent (a SurveyUSA poll puts him at just over 50%. Still, though, a lead is a lead, and an 18-point one is pretty solid. LIKELY BROWNBACK
• August 26:
• Alaska, U.S. Senate GOP primary: Sullivan vs. Treadwell vs. Miller. LIKELY SULLIVAN, although, like in 2010, a Miller upset is still possible.
• Arizona, gubernatorial GOP primary: Bennett vs. Ducey vs. four other no-namers left out for brevity's sake. LEANS DUCEY, although polling is sparse and there's no telling whether Secretary of State Ken Bennett will regain his lead.
• Florida, gubernatorial primaries. SAFE CRIST, SCOTT, for the Democratic and Republican nominations, respectively.
• September 9:
• New Hampshire, U.S. Senate GOP primary: Brown vs. Testerman vs. Rubens vs. Smith. The former senator from Massachusetts has led all opposition since even before he announced his candidacy, leading even the most prominent New Hampshirite in the race, former Sen. Bob Smith, by 20-40 point margins. SAFE BROWN
• Rhode Island, gubernatorial Democratic primary: Taveras vs. Raimondo vs. Pell vs. Giroux. Angel Taveras, mayor of Providence, has traded a very narrow lead with State Treasurer Gina Raimondo back and forth for the past nine months. The lead is narrow as ever, and who knows what it'll look like in the next poll? TOSS-UP (Taveras vs. Raimondo)
• Rhode Island, gubernatorial GOP primary: Block vs. Fung. Like many primaries, limited polling is available. 2010 Moderate nominee Ken Block has a lead last we checked--but that was months ago now. More importantly, one poll stood out to me and made me wonder: what the hell could possibly have possessed Brown University to release a poll with a sample size of 86 respondents? LEANS BLOCK

Technically, Louisiana also holds its Senate primary on November 4, but that's Election Day as well. So we'll just call it at SAFE LANDRIEU, CASSIDY in preparation for the inevitable runoff.

 

I bring up Stata to explain why the following is going on a to-do list as opposed to just getting put in here right now. Obsessed as I am with campaign finance statistics, I feel it'd be interesting to look at the "bang for the buck" numbers--how many votes does each dollar buy? This'll be a simple dollar-to-vote ratio from previous elections (this will be either by candidate or by margin; both should yield the same results). It'd also be necessary to account for the length of the general election campaign--which is what all the primary nonsense up there is about. Some general election seasons can last for more than half the year (first one that comes to mind is Texas, which held its primaries in March); others, like New Hampshire and Rhode Island, above, don't even last two months. 

In the meantime, I'll try to get Stata back online.