Ratings Update: July 31, 2014

Less than 100 days before the election on November 4, here's another ratings update:

Governorships:

Colorado - Former U.S. Rep. Bob Beauprez has been playing a long game of catch-up to Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper. As recently as April, Beauprez had trailed the governor by double digits; more recently he has tied or even led slightly. It's possible that a lot of this narrowing of the margin is due to Republican voters coalescing behind Beauprez after the primary, when Republican support was divided. This race now LEANS DEMOCRATIC.

Connecticut - The Nutmeg State's gubernatorial race is shaping up to be a rematch of 2010, when former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy defeated former ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley by less than 7,000 votes. This year looks just as close--if anything, Foley is leading, as Gov. Malloy has not led in a single poll. But it's too close to say that. TOSS-UP

Florida - Suffice it to say that former Gov. Charlie Crist and incumbent Gov. Rick Scott are the most unpopular election pairing in recent history. As governors, both candidates have very high name recognition across the state, and with that in mind polling suggests that voters don't like either of their choices. Florida's is the only gubernatorial race where both candidates have net disapproval ratings, and Gov. Scott is the third-least popular governor in the country up for re-election this year, behind Gov. Tom Corbett of Pennsylvania (himself on the chopping block for November) and Gov. Paul LePage of Maine (also in very dangerous territory, poll-wise). Crist had been leading in polls for more than two years until the spring; now the race is deadlocked. TOSS-UP

Kansas - Previously "leaning Republican", the Democratic challenge to Republican Gov. Sam Brownback is once again up in the air. Mainly for two reasons: House Minority Leader Paul Davis has wrested a lead from Gov. Brownback in two of the three polls conducted in the last two months. I'm rather skeptical of the third poll--an unprecedented, nationwide survey with a panel of 100,000 voters from all fifty states, conducted by online firm YouGov for CBS News and The New York Times--which has produced some baffling results, such as Sen. Mark Begich of Alaska leading Dan S. Sullivan more comfortably than Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey is leading Jeffrey Bell. I therefore haven't lent much credence to it. Meanwhile, momentum in the Davis campaign has been boosted by an unprecedented endorsement of the Democratic leader by 104 Kansas Republicans, who have played some very contentious politics with the governor in the three and a half years he's been in office. Last election, for example, Gov. Brownback supported conservative challengers to moderate Republicans in the Senate and knocked off eight of them. Kansas Republicans are by no means a unified bloc, and so far it only seems to be hurting Gov. Brownback. TOSS-UP

Massachusetts - The reason for Attorney General Martha Coakley's early lead may have been divided Republican opposition. In early polling Coakley led 2010 Republican nominee Charles Baker by double digits, but frequently with less than 40% of the vote. The Democratic convention vote to decide which candidates would appear on the ballot for the September 9 primary also didn't betray any Democratic enthusiasm for Coakley: the 2010 Senate loser garnered only 23% of the convention vote, above the 15% needed to make the primary ballot but still only in second. Low enthusiasm and closer polling means that there's plenty of work for Democrats to do if they want to keep the governor's mansion for another four years. LEANS DEMOCRATIC

Just one in the Senate--and it's not even a Senate election:

Kansas GOP primary - Based on polls and candidate comparisons, Kansas is basically where Mississippi was two months before the June 3 primary. although it's worth noting that Kansas is basically where Mississippi was two months before the June 3 primary. Chris McDaniel came out on top in that one, but it's less than a week before the Kansas primary, not two months. Compared to McDaniel, challenger Milton R. Wolf has more ground to make up in a lot less time. LIKELY ROBERTS