With one day left before July 22, the Republican primary runoff seems only to have tightened up since Rep. Jack Kingston and David Perdue advanced from the May 20 primary. However, that's a tightening in a marginal sense: Rep. Kingston is still favored for tomorrow. Here's why:
Polling. This (as always) is the big reason: the weighted average here puts Rep. Kingston ahead 46-41. One thing to note about the average is that it appears lower than a simple average of all polls in the last two weeks; this is because the most favorable poll for Rep. Kingston (48-41) was conducted by Landmark Communications. I have no bias against the firm itself; what I don't like about the surveys it conducts is that all of its calls are made in a single day. This practice suggests one of two equally dubious scenarios: 1) Landmark, favoring expediency over true randomness, surveys the first adult to pick up the phone as opposed to the person actually on their list, or 2) Landmark, favoring expediency over true randomness, doesn't bother to call back when a call is not returned. One of these must be true simply because of how short the day is. And the main problem with such cursory polling practices is that it turns a random (ostensibly) pool into a non-random one by leaving out the people who might be busy at a certain time: people who work late; people who have Zumba classes on Tuesdays; people who just happen to be out at the time you call, etc. One day is simply not enough to reach all of those people. I therefore artificially reduce the weight of those polls by a lot in the average.
In terms of the actual numbers, polls are reason for Rep. Kingston to be a little optimistic--but not too optimistic, seeing as he and Perdue are still well below 50%. And we can't assume that undecided voters will break more or less evenly for the two: Joni Ernst's victory in Iowa reaffirmed that. Still, Perdue has been consistently polling at 41%....
Fundraising. Since the runoff is basically here, the amount of cash on hand isn't necessarily a good indicator. However, examining how much money the candidates have raised and where that money came from can be important information in gauging support. Specifically:
- Of the $7.3 million Rep. Kingston has raised this cycle, $4.2 million (58%) were large contributions from corporate entities or interest groups; another $874,090 (12%) came from PACs and another $300,000 (4%) came from small individual contributions. A whopping $0 of Rep. Kingston's war chest came from the candidate's own wallet.
- David Perdue has raised a comparable amount--more than $5.8 million--but the origins of that money are much different. Over half of it ($3.2 million) was paid out of pocket by the candidate himself, and only 1% of it came from small individual donors and PACs combined. The remaining 44% ($2.6 million) is from large contributions.
(For more details, see the OpenSecrets page on the Senate election in Georgia.) What this intuitively suggests is that Rep. Kingston has in fact attracted more supporters across the board, and Perdue has had to self-fund in large part just to keep up.
Endorsements. This is really the one thing that has changed dramatically over the two months since the primary. While Perdue and Rep. Kingston came in first and second in the primary respectively, close third-place finisher Karen Handel sported an impressive roster of endorsements, including those of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania. While Gov. Palin and Sen. Santorum didn't endorse any candidate after the primary, many Handel supporters, including RedState.com editor-in-chief Erick Erickson and former Georgia GOP chair Sue Everhart switched allegiance to Rep. Kingston. Handel herself, as well as fourth-place finisher Rep. Phil Gingrey, endorsed Rep. Kingston later, and Kingston also received endorsements from former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and the National Rifle Association, both of whom had not endorsed any candidate previously. Perdue, for his part, hasn't received new endorsements from other candidates or their supporters.
The common theme, really, is that Rep. Kingston has proven himself better able to attract support on all fronts--from voters, donors, and people in high places. It'll help him in tomorrow's runoff, and it should make him a stronger candidate against Michelle Nunn in the general election than Perdue ever could be. LEANS KINGSTON
No comments:
Post a Comment