Reasons to be optimistic in Alaska

Only one red-state Democrat has yet to figure out who his Republican opponent will be. Senators Pryor in Arkansas, Hagan in North Carolina, and Walsh in Montana have gone through their primaries already, and Louisiana's jungle primary system means that Sen. Landrieu already has her GOP opponents scoped out. All that remains is Sen. Mark Begich of Alaska, who can't yet say for sure whether he's up against former Attorney General Daniel S. Sullivan, Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, or 2010 nominee Joe Miller.

For reasons I've touched on before, I saw Sen. Begich, regardless of his eventual opponent, as probably the least-doomed of his fellow red-state Democrats. That was back in April, though, when Sen. Hagan looked like she wasn't doing all that well; now that she's seemed to have regained an edge over Speaker Thom Tillis, she's taken that spot. Nevertheless, I still see Sen. Begich as one of the least-doomed of red-state Democrats this year. For a refresher, here's the map of Sen. Begich's 2008 victory over incumbent Sen. Ted Stevens (slightly recolored):

2008 Alaska Senate election by county and by margin.

The reason Sen. Begich's re-election prospects look rather grim is the same as the main reason every other red-state Democrat's re-election prospects look grim--President Obama's coattails have now become political headwinds; his unpopularity has led to guilt by association for many Democrats.

For senators like Sen. Landrieu in Louisiana and Sen. Walsh in Montana, that's pretty much the end of the story. President Obama is unpopular in those states; as a result, those senators are unpopular. The good news for Sen. Begich is that while the president is unpopular in Alaska as well, his popularity isn't as low as it is in the South. One statistic that hints at this is his electoral performance in Alaska:

• In 2008, President Obama lost Alaska by almost 22 points, making Alaska almost 29 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in that election.
• In 2012, President Obama lost Alaska by only 14 points, despite having won the national popular vote by a lower margin than in 2008. Alaska in 2012 voted only 18 points more Republican than the nation as a whole that year.

The difference might be chalked up partly to Gov. Sarah Palin's presence on the 2008 ticket. As the first Alaskan to appear on any major-party presidential ticket, she almost certainly increased Sen. McCain's margin of victory in Alaska that year. And because Gov. Palin was absent from the ticket in 2012, President Obama fared better in Alaska that year. But it may also be inaccurate to completely credit Gov. Palin's absence for President Obama's improvement in 2012: Alaska's Republican-ness compared to the rest of the nation, at the presidential level, has been decreasing since 1996, save for the blip in 2008 when an Alaskan was on the Republican ticket. 

Moreover, Sen. Begich has the advantage of having been elected twice to the highest office in the city of Anchorage, which constitutes over 40% of Alaska's population. He can't really run on his record as mayor anymore since it's been six years since he last held that office, but he is an Anchorage native (while none of his Republican challengers were even born in Alaska) and has a prominent father in Alaskan politics (Nick Begich represented Alaska in the U.S. House until his presumed death in a plane crash in 1972). And if we've learned anything about localized races, it's that roots and names can mean something. It's not necessarily so and it might not mean a lot, but Sen. Begich's advantages in this regard shouldn't be underestimated.

Which brings me back to the senator's winning chances. Sen. Begich doesn't seem to be having as rough a time as his fellow red-state Democrats because the state is not quite as red as others (it's more libertarian-leaning independents than anything else) and because Alaskans can associate, and in large part have associated, the name with something other than President Obama. In short, because he's been able to sell himself not as a senator or mayor, but as an Alaskan.