Ratings Update: June 30, 2014

It's that time of the month again!

One in the Senate:

Louisiana. Sen. Mary Landrieu has literally for months now trailed in most polling; the only polls in which she ties or maintains narrow (i.e. within the margin of error) leads are those polls which do not filter for likely voters--and especially in midterm elections, those polls tend to skew toward Democratic candidates. On the average--which, admittedly, is dominated by one poll conducted twenty days ago (the others have been two months old or older)--she trails Rep. Bill Cassidy 44-49. As we saw in Mississippi, there's plenty that can turn around between an election and the runoff (which is almost a certainty in Louisiana this year), but Sen. Landrieu faces a much tougher climate than Sen. Cochran, an old Republican in a heavily Republican state, did. LEANS REPUBLICAN

A bunch of maps and a chart that might help explain Mississippi

First things first: Call me easily amused, but I found it funny that Mississippi has both a Lincoln County and a Jefferson Davis County (the two opposing commanders-in-chief of the Union and Confederacy during the Civil War).

Second thing: Have I gotten myself a track record for being just slightly wrong now?

• In Iowa's June 3 primary, I predicted that state senator Joni Ernst would win the necessary 35% to avoid a convention nomination, but wouldn't win a majority. She did end up avoiding the convention--by clobbering her nearest competitors by 38 points.
• In Mississippi's June 3 primary, I said that neither state senator Chris McDaniel nor incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran would receive a majority; Sen. Cochran would lead, but the election would be forced to a runoff. I was right about the runoff but wrong about the standings (although McDaniel's lead was very, very narrow).

Now, most recently, I predicted that McDaniel would prevail in the runoff election held Tuesday. This, as you may recall, was mainly because 1) McDaniel had come in first in the actual primary and 2) most polling showed McDaniel up, and the few polls that had Sen. Cochran up gave him only narrow leads well within the margin of error. So you can imagine my surprise when Sen. Cochran defied the odds to be renominated for a seventh term in the Senate.

Another Tuesday, Another Primary

Today sees another slew of primaries in no fewer than five states, but by far the most watched election today will be Mississippi's Republican primary runoff election, due to its status as pretty much the last chance for the Tea Party to knock off an incumbent Republican, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor's stunning loss in VA-7 two weeks ago notwithstanding. As you might have read before, Mississippi's GOP primary was a nailbiter in which state senator Chris McDaniel would have knocked off longtime incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran were it not for Mississippi's runoff law, which states that should no candidate receive 50% + 1 of the vote, a runoff election between the top two finishers must be held to determine the winner, much like in Georgia. 

 

That runoff is today, and from the looks of it McDaniel is favored to win the runoff. My average has him leading Sen. Cochran 49-44, with about an 85% chance of victory for the Tea Party-backed McDaniel. And not only is McDaniel doing at least as well as Sen. Cochran in all polling (the worst he's done is trail Sen. Cochran by one point, well within the margin of error), his performance has been remarkably consistent: barring one poll from NSON Opinion, McDaniel has remained in the high 40s to low 50s ever since the primary. Similarly, Sen. Cochran, barring one poll, has remained in the low-to-mid 40s since the primary. In other words, neither candidate seems to have any momentum: McDaniel isn't going down, and Sen. Cochran isn't going up. And that, of course, is good for McDaniel, who has the lead and looks ready to maintain the lead as the polls open. MCDANIEL VICTORY

Other states:

The Spoiler Effect: Polls vs. Reality

More often than not, third-party candidates have little effect on the ultimate result of an election. The eventual performance of most third-party candidates is lower than the margin of error of most polls (2%-4%), and so a poll that includes every single candidate running in the election (yes, even the Rent Is Too Damn High Party) provides no useful information about the likely results of the election. But when a third party candidate begins polling well (above the margin of error), pollsters would do well to include that candidate in their survey questions, so as to more closely reflect the range of choices voters have. A poll that gives a choice between Al Gore, George W. Bush, and Ralph Nader, for example, could give a different result from a poll that gives a choice between just Gore and Bush.

So in an election like the Senate race in North Carolina, where Libertarian Sean Haugh has been supported by about 10% of respondents on average in the polls that include his name, it'd probably be a good idea to continue putting his name in polls, since even considering sampling error Haugh's performance is probably fairly strong. Certainly it's strong enough to possibly tip the scales in favor of either candidate in a close race like North Carolina.

The Spoiler Effect

In Virginia's 2013 gubernatorial election, Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis captured over 146,000 votes--almost three times the 56,000-vote margin that separated Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli from the victor, former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe. His presence on the ballot may well have cost Republicans the governor's mansion. Last week, Cuccinelli consultant Chris LaCivitas had this to say about Libertarian candidates:

"Libertarians and quote-un-quote libertarian-minded Republicans exist for one purpose and one purpose only, and that is to keep Republicans from winning general elections." -- Chris LaCivita

Eric Cantor's Contribution to Electoral History--and to the Senate Election in Alaska

There was a certain primary I dismissed offhand only hours ago as likely to be "more of a Kentucky than a Mississippi." That race was another one marketed as a "Tea Party vs. establishment" brawl, despite the fact that the "Tea Party" candidate wasn't really a tea partier. But the incumbent in the GOP primary for the 7th District in Virginia was actually just about as establishment as it gets--House Majority Leader Eric Cantor was defending his seat against economics professor David Brat. With 99% of precincts reporting, Prof. Brat has unseated Rep. Cantor with 55% of the vote. In doing so, Rep. Cantor's become the first ever Majority Leader to have been primaried. Congratulations! (Note: I wish people would stop saying the "first Majority Leader since 1899" figure. There was no such thing as a House Majority Leader before 1899. It's just the first ever House Majority Leader.)

Not-so-Super-Tuesday Mk. III Update

When I called today "Super Tuesday Mk. III" last week, I sort of overstated it. Today's primaries have neither the excitement of the McDaniel - Cochran face-off on Super Tuesday Mk. II on June 3, nor the importance of the Georgia GOP primary on Super Tuesday Mk. I on May 20. In fact, there are only five states holding primary elections today: