There was a certain primary I dismissed offhand only hours ago as likely to be "more of a Kentucky than a Mississippi." That race was another one marketed as a "Tea Party vs. establishment" brawl, despite the fact that the "Tea Party" candidate wasn't really a tea partier. But the incumbent in the GOP primary for the 7th District in Virginia was actually just about as establishment as it gets--House Majority Leader Eric Cantor was defending his seat against economics professor David Brat. With 99% of precincts reporting, Prof. Brat has unseated Rep. Cantor with 55% of the vote. In doing so, Rep. Cantor's become the first ever Majority Leader to have been primaried. Congratulations! (Note: I wish people would stop saying the "first Majority Leader since 1899" figure. There was no such thing as a House Majority Leader before 1899. It's just the first ever House Majority Leader.)
In Washington this may have big consequences. First, there's politics--there will likely be a struggle within the Republican caucus to determine the new heir apparent to Speaker Boehner. Policy-wise, it's almost certainly stalled immigration reform for the 114th Congress, since it was on immigration and alleged support for "amnesty" that Prof. Brat hammered Rep. Cantor. But electorally speaking, it doesn't change the picture much. VA-7, which contains the conservative Richmond suburbs, has a Cook PVI of R+10: it's still safely in the Republican column, the only difference being that it'll be represented by Prof. Brat instead of Rep. Cantor.
One possible consequence for the year's campaigns is that it'll serve as a reminder that no, incumbents are not safe. It was an upset by many definitions: internal polling showed him comfortably leading Prof. Brat. Prof. Brat raised just over $200,000 for his entire campaign while Rep. Cantor spent that much on catering alone. History shows that it's really tough to take down incumbents in primaries. And yet against all odds, Rep. Cantor lost, and not by the closest of margins, either.
If Prof. Brat's victory is to affect any major effect on the Senate races, it'll probably be in Alaska, which is the last really competitive state ("competitive" meaning toss-up or leans to one side in my ratings) yet to truly settle on a GOP front runner. Previously there were three Republican contenders: former Natural Resources Commissioner Daniel S. Sullivan, Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, and 2010 nominee Joe Miller. Because Commissioner Sullivan has attracted the large majority of Republican fundraising dollars and has led in every poll taken this year (although not by that much), this nomination is probably his.
Of course, I'm hedging my bets with that "probably", especially in light of Rep. Cantor's defeat. First, Alaskan polling is notoriously hit-or-miss: polls in the final month of the 2008 Senate election ranged from a 22-point lead for eventual victor Mark Begich to a 1-point lead for incumbent Sen. Ted Stevens. In 2010 the single poll taken during the primary was a huge miss, showing a 32-point lead for incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski when the eventual result was a narrow 2-point victory for Miller. This year (possibly because of pollsters learning their lesson from 2010) there's more polling, but we shouldn't give it the benefit of the doubt. Sen. Murkowski eventually managed to defeat Miller in a write-in campaign. But that would be a worst-case scenario for Republicans in the VA-7 race this year: if Rep. Cantor pulls a Murkowski (or a Thurmond, as it should have been known before 2010, since Sen. Strom Thurmond of South Carolina won a write-in re-election in 1954), it's very possible that he could split the Republican field and hand a victory to the Democrat.
More importantly now, Miller once more is a force that must be reckoned with. Or at least, he's likely to be viewed as such. That's the lesson of Rep. Cantor's defeat--it's a reminder from 2010 that no Republican is safe. And a Miller nomination would be a nightmare for Republicans: he is the only Republican candidate whom Sen. Begich has consistently led by double digits in polls. With Prof. Brat's victory, it enters into the realm of possibility. And Commissioner Sullivan would do well to learn from Rep. Cantor.
One more fun fact about the VA-7 race this year--both Prof. Brat and his Democratic opponent, sociology professor Jack Trammell, teach at Randolph-Macon College in Ashland. This could easily turn into an econ-vs.-sociology brawl. But with that in mind, I don't think it's too unreasonable to hope--like I'm sure much of the Randolph-Macon student body does--that this commonality makes for a much less negative campaign.
Of course, I'm hedging my bets with that "probably", especially in light of Rep. Cantor's defeat. First, Alaskan polling is notoriously hit-or-miss: polls in the final month of the 2008 Senate election ranged from a 22-point lead for eventual victor Mark Begich to a 1-point lead for incumbent Sen. Ted Stevens. In 2010 the single poll taken during the primary was a huge miss, showing a 32-point lead for incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski when the eventual result was a narrow 2-point victory for Miller. This year (possibly because of pollsters learning their lesson from 2010) there's more polling, but we shouldn't give it the benefit of the doubt. Sen. Murkowski eventually managed to defeat Miller in a write-in campaign. But that would be a worst-case scenario for Republicans in the VA-7 race this year: if Rep. Cantor pulls a Murkowski (or a Thurmond, as it should have been known before 2010, since Sen. Strom Thurmond of South Carolina won a write-in re-election in 1954), it's very possible that he could split the Republican field and hand a victory to the Democrat.
More importantly now, Miller once more is a force that must be reckoned with. Or at least, he's likely to be viewed as such. That's the lesson of Rep. Cantor's defeat--it's a reminder from 2010 that no Republican is safe. And a Miller nomination would be a nightmare for Republicans: he is the only Republican candidate whom Sen. Begich has consistently led by double digits in polls. With Prof. Brat's victory, it enters into the realm of possibility. And Commissioner Sullivan would do well to learn from Rep. Cantor.
One more fun fact about the VA-7 race this year--both Prof. Brat and his Democratic opponent, sociology professor Jack Trammell, teach at Randolph-Macon College in Ashland. This could easily turn into an econ-vs.-sociology brawl. But with that in mind, I don't think it's too unreasonable to hope--like I'm sure much of the Randolph-Macon student body does--that this commonality makes for a much less negative campaign.
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