Not-so-Super-Tuesday Mk. III Update

When I called today "Super Tuesday Mk. III" last week, I sort of overstated it. Today's primaries have neither the excitement of the McDaniel - Cochran face-off on Super Tuesday Mk. II on June 3, nor the importance of the Georgia GOP primary on Super Tuesday Mk. I on May 20. In fact, there are only five states holding primary elections today:

• Maine: 2 House, 1 Senate, 1 governor. The contests here are pretty much set: in the race for the governorship, incumbent Republican Gov. Paul LePage and Democratic Rep. Mike Michaud were the only candidates to file for their parties' nominations. That's not to discount the (very strong) independent candidacy of Eliot Cutler, who doesn't have to win any primaries. Unlike the Senate election, where the contest is also pretty much set between incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins and former ACLU executive Shenna Bellows, the gubernatorial election promises to be a close contest in November.
• Nevada: 4 House, 1 governor. Nothing to see here: the only real question is "which of eight politically inexperienced Nevada Democrats wants to be a massive underdog against Gov. Brian Sandoval in November?"
• North Dakota: 1 House. That one House seat is also safely Republican.
• South Carolina: 7 House, 1 Senate, 1 governor. The gubernatorial race is a rematch of 2010: Gov. Nikki Haley will once again be opposed by Democratic state senator Vincent Sheheen. South Carolina is really the only primary that promises any excitement like Super Tuesday Mk. II did; Democrats are hoping that this will be another Mississippi and that an upstart conservative will be able to knock off Sen. Lindsey Graham in the primary, or at least force him to a runoff. The latter is a danger--in the most recent poll, Sen. Graham has slipped below 50%. However, in that same poll 35% of respondents were undecided. This primary won't be so much a Mississippi as much as it will be a Kentucky, where the incumbent easily beats off a challenge from the right (or in this case, six challenges). I predict that Sen. Graham wins renomination without a runoff.
• Virginia: 10 House, 1 Senate. No primaries here: Democratic Sen. Mark Warner will already be facing former RNC chair Ed Gillespie, as well as 2013 Libertarian gubernatorial nominee Robert Sarvis. The only other interesting race here is House Majority Leader Rep. Eric Cantor's primary, but again this should prove to be more of a Kentucky than a Mississippi (I'm going to have to start using that phrase more often).

So as I said, not so super. If you're going to watch one, watch the South Carolina primary--but again, don't expect any surprises.