Ratings Update: June 30, 2014

It's that time of the month again!

One in the Senate:

Louisiana. Sen. Mary Landrieu has literally for months now trailed in most polling; the only polls in which she ties or maintains narrow (i.e. within the margin of error) leads are those polls which do not filter for likely voters--and especially in midterm elections, those polls tend to skew toward Democratic candidates. On the average--which, admittedly, is dominated by one poll conducted twenty days ago (the others have been two months old or older)--she trails Rep. Bill Cassidy 44-49. As we saw in Mississippi, there's plenty that can turn around between an election and the runoff (which is almost a certainty in Louisiana this year), but Sen. Landrieu faces a much tougher climate than Sen. Cochran, an old Republican in a heavily Republican state, did. LEANS REPUBLICAN

A bunch of maps and a chart that might help explain Mississippi

First things first: Call me easily amused, but I found it funny that Mississippi has both a Lincoln County and a Jefferson Davis County (the two opposing commanders-in-chief of the Union and Confederacy during the Civil War).

Second thing: Have I gotten myself a track record for being just slightly wrong now?

• In Iowa's June 3 primary, I predicted that state senator Joni Ernst would win the necessary 35% to avoid a convention nomination, but wouldn't win a majority. She did end up avoiding the convention--by clobbering her nearest competitors by 38 points.
• In Mississippi's June 3 primary, I said that neither state senator Chris McDaniel nor incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran would receive a majority; Sen. Cochran would lead, but the election would be forced to a runoff. I was right about the runoff but wrong about the standings (although McDaniel's lead was very, very narrow).

Now, most recently, I predicted that McDaniel would prevail in the runoff election held Tuesday. This, as you may recall, was mainly because 1) McDaniel had come in first in the actual primary and 2) most polling showed McDaniel up, and the few polls that had Sen. Cochran up gave him only narrow leads well within the margin of error. So you can imagine my surprise when Sen. Cochran defied the odds to be renominated for a seventh term in the Senate.

Another Tuesday, Another Primary

Today sees another slew of primaries in no fewer than five states, but by far the most watched election today will be Mississippi's Republican primary runoff election, due to its status as pretty much the last chance for the Tea Party to knock off an incumbent Republican, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor's stunning loss in VA-7 two weeks ago notwithstanding. As you might have read before, Mississippi's GOP primary was a nailbiter in which state senator Chris McDaniel would have knocked off longtime incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran were it not for Mississippi's runoff law, which states that should no candidate receive 50% + 1 of the vote, a runoff election between the top two finishers must be held to determine the winner, much like in Georgia. 

 

That runoff is today, and from the looks of it McDaniel is favored to win the runoff. My average has him leading Sen. Cochran 49-44, with about an 85% chance of victory for the Tea Party-backed McDaniel. And not only is McDaniel doing at least as well as Sen. Cochran in all polling (the worst he's done is trail Sen. Cochran by one point, well within the margin of error), his performance has been remarkably consistent: barring one poll from NSON Opinion, McDaniel has remained in the high 40s to low 50s ever since the primary. Similarly, Sen. Cochran, barring one poll, has remained in the low-to-mid 40s since the primary. In other words, neither candidate seems to have any momentum: McDaniel isn't going down, and Sen. Cochran isn't going up. And that, of course, is good for McDaniel, who has the lead and looks ready to maintain the lead as the polls open. MCDANIEL VICTORY

Other states:

The Spoiler Effect: Polls vs. Reality

More often than not, third-party candidates have little effect on the ultimate result of an election. The eventual performance of most third-party candidates is lower than the margin of error of most polls (2%-4%), and so a poll that includes every single candidate running in the election (yes, even the Rent Is Too Damn High Party) provides no useful information about the likely results of the election. But when a third party candidate begins polling well (above the margin of error), pollsters would do well to include that candidate in their survey questions, so as to more closely reflect the range of choices voters have. A poll that gives a choice between Al Gore, George W. Bush, and Ralph Nader, for example, could give a different result from a poll that gives a choice between just Gore and Bush.

So in an election like the Senate race in North Carolina, where Libertarian Sean Haugh has been supported by about 10% of respondents on average in the polls that include his name, it'd probably be a good idea to continue putting his name in polls, since even considering sampling error Haugh's performance is probably fairly strong. Certainly it's strong enough to possibly tip the scales in favor of either candidate in a close race like North Carolina.

The Spoiler Effect

In Virginia's 2013 gubernatorial election, Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis captured over 146,000 votes--almost three times the 56,000-vote margin that separated Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli from the victor, former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe. His presence on the ballot may well have cost Republicans the governor's mansion. Last week, Cuccinelli consultant Chris LaCivitas had this to say about Libertarian candidates:

"Libertarians and quote-un-quote libertarian-minded Republicans exist for one purpose and one purpose only, and that is to keep Republicans from winning general elections." -- Chris LaCivita

Eric Cantor's Contribution to Electoral History--and to the Senate Election in Alaska

There was a certain primary I dismissed offhand only hours ago as likely to be "more of a Kentucky than a Mississippi." That race was another one marketed as a "Tea Party vs. establishment" brawl, despite the fact that the "Tea Party" candidate wasn't really a tea partier. But the incumbent in the GOP primary for the 7th District in Virginia was actually just about as establishment as it gets--House Majority Leader Eric Cantor was defending his seat against economics professor David Brat. With 99% of precincts reporting, Prof. Brat has unseated Rep. Cantor with 55% of the vote. In doing so, Rep. Cantor's become the first ever Majority Leader to have been primaried. Congratulations! (Note: I wish people would stop saying the "first Majority Leader since 1899" figure. There was no such thing as a House Majority Leader before 1899. It's just the first ever House Majority Leader.)

Not-so-Super-Tuesday Mk. III Update

When I called today "Super Tuesday Mk. III" last week, I sort of overstated it. Today's primaries have neither the excitement of the McDaniel - Cochran face-off on Super Tuesday Mk. II on June 3, nor the importance of the Georgia GOP primary on Super Tuesday Mk. I on May 20. In fact, there are only five states holding primary elections today:

Ratings Update: June 6, 2014

With Super Tuesday Mk. II three days behind us, I'm ready to make some changes, in addition to the change in Arkansas's gubernatorial election from TOSS-UP to LEANS REPUBLICAN. 

In the Senate: 

Mississippi yielded only one of two surprises from Tuesday: state senator Chris McDaniel placed ahead of incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran in the Republican primary in Mississippi; however, thanks to Thomas Carey's 1.5% share of the vote, neither of the two received the majority required to avoid a runoff on June 24. I slightly favor McDaniel in the runoff based on his performance in the primary, although with three weeks before the runoff anything can really happen. This runoff is a TOSS-UP. Former Rep. Travis Childers, the Democratic nominee, would vastly prefer to face McDaniel in the general election due to the latter's associations with neo-Confederate groups. He's probably right to do so; in the event that McDaniel wins the runoff, I'd change this race to LIKELY REPUBLICAN. (Remember, though, that this is conditional on McDaniel winning the runoff.)

Iowa was the other surprise from Tuesday: while state senator Joni Ernst's victory was completely in accordance with the polls, her 56% share of the vote defied polls that pointed to a victory that would just clear the 35% threshold required to avoid a convention nomination. The first polls taken after her victory (the most recent since three weeks ago) both have her leading, suggesting that earlier polls underestimated her support. This may be because Rep. Bruce Braley was the Democratic front runner long before the primary, while Ernst was only slightly ahead in a crowded field; now that both candidates have settled, poll respondents have a clear choice. Instead of leaning Democratic, I'd say this race is now a TOSS-UP. 

Governor's mansions

Maine (like Oregon in the last update) is really just an overdue change. There is no reason to think, from the limited polling available, that incumbent Republican Gov. Paul LePage is in as much danger as, say, Gov. Tom Corbett of Pennsylvania, who has been down by more than 20 points in all polls taken since the primary there. Therefore I'm moving this one to LEANS DEMOCRAT. Bear in mind that both Rep. Mike Michaud, the Democratic front runner, and Gov. LePage both face complications in independent candidate Eliot Cutler, who came within 2 points of winning the governorship from Gov. LePage in 2010. Cutler isn't polling nearly as well this year, but Gov. LePage should still be wary of his candidacy--and hope that he takes more votes from Rep. Michaud (as often happens to Maine Democrats).

Other than that, the relative dearth of surprises from Tuesday means that the status quo is maintained. Democrats are still likely to pick up 2-3 governorships; the major difference now is that, should Sen. Cochran win his runoff (keeping Mississippi safely in the Republican column), control of the Senate is still a toss-up, but one that now favors Republican control instead of Democratic control, which is what I previously had.

EDIT: I forgot to mention a rating for Georgia's runoff election in the Republican primary between Rep. Jack Kingston and David Perdue. At the present time, by two very important metrics--polls and fundraising--Rep. Kingston has much greater support than Perdue does. In polls Rep. Kingston leads by double-digit margins. In fundraising, not only does Rep. Kingston still have almost $1.3 million on hand compared to Perdue's "mere" $460,000 (a huge advantage considering that the election is still a month and a half away), exactly none of Rep. Kingston's war chest is self-financed, which suggests that his fundraising machine is much more sustainable than Perdue's, which is pretty much all from his wallet at this point. I therefore call this one a LIKELY KINGSTON.

Super Post-Tuesday Mk. II Wrap-Up: Where I Went Wrong

Here we are past midnight, Wednesday, June 4, and we've one race yet to be decided. As of 1:35 AM in Mississippi, with 98% of precincts reporting, state senator Chris McDaniel leads incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran 49.6-48.8: a difference of 2,528 votes. Unfortunately, we probably won't know the exact results until tomorrow morning. Here's Emily Wagster Pettus of the Associated Press in Jackson:

Zero precincts reporting from Covington County. An election commissioner just told me she's home in bed & can't give us numbers. #MSSen
— Emily Wagster Pettus (@EWagsterPettus) June 4, 2014

At this point I think it's safe to say that Mississippi's going to a runoff.

Super Tuesday Mk. II Update: 11:19 PM

As it turns out, Joni Ernst's early lead in Iowa was not a fluke of which precincts turned in their votes first; with over 60% of the vote in, she has garnered 55% of the vote and appears to be heading for a non-convention victory. Sigh #1 for the Republican establishment.

Mississippi has become even less clear than it was before, as McDaniel has once again slipped below the 50% point required to avoid a runoff. He still leads Sen. Cochran, but even more narrowly, by less than 3,000 votes. Only 8% of the vote remains left to be counted, and increasingly it looks like the race is headed for a June 24 runoff. Still, when vote totals are running this close, 8% is more than enough to change a 3,000 vote gap.

New Jersey's GOP Senate primary is finally set: with 99% of the vote counted, Jeff Bell has won the right to lose to Sen. Cory Booker with a whopping 29.3% mandate from Republican voters. Best of luck to him.

Super Tuesday Mk. II Update: 10:50 PM

Still close in Mississippi: except now it's the other way around. Chris McDaniel now leads Sen. Cochran by less than 5,000 votes--50.2-48.3. Carey still holds 1.6% of the vote. 20% of the vote remains to be counted, which means there's still time for this to swing any way--McDaniel wins, Cochran wins; runoff, no runoff.

New Jersey is still close, with no candidate above 30%.

Iowa has begun reporting its votes, as well. In Iowa, primary candidates must win more than 35% of the vote to avoid a convention nomination. It's anyone's guess as to who would be nominated there--establishment Republicans fear that supporters of former Texas Rep. Ron Paul could steer the nomination toward a less moderate candidate. Like the polls said, most of the candidates are receiving under 20% of the vote. The exception is state senator Joni Ernst--our average had Ernst at 36%, just enough to avoid a convention even without any undecided voters breaking for her. As it stands she currently has over 53% of the vote. With only 22% of the vote in, it's not safe to call this race hers, but it's something to look out for. As I've been doing anyway.

Super Tuesday Mk. II Update: 10:18 PM

Finally Iowa's gotten on the ball and results are filtering in. And they tell us--absolutely nothing, because only 0.4% of the vote is in. Whatever, we can wait.

In Mississippi, things are looking slightly better for Sen. Cochran, who at least has more than 50% of the vote now. With the gap between Sen. Cochran and McDaniel at just over 5,000 votes out of over 166,000 counted, there's still room to call this one either way as more of the 40% of the remaining precincts report in.

In New Jersey the race has only gotten closer. With 28.2% of the vote, Jeff Bell leads Rich Pezzullo even more narrowly than before; meanwhile, less than 25% of the vote remains to be reported. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a recount tomorrow, although I doubt Sen. Booker really cares--it's still a safe seat for him.

Super Tuesday Mk. II Update: 9:44 PM

Some preliminary results in:

• Two incumbent Republican governors have easily defeated primary challengers. South Dakota Gov. Dennis Daugaard and Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley, with under 30% of the vote in, both lead their primary challengers by 60-70%.
• In South Dakota again, former Gov. Mike Rounds has secured the Republican nomination for Senate with 57.8% of the vote and just over 30% reporting. He's set to face Democrat Rick Weiland, who ran unopposed, in November.

And now, two non-results:

• New Jersey: Over half of the vote is in and the Republican vote is still split four ways with no clear leader: businessman Rich Pezzullo is ahead with 31% of the vote, but only five points ahead of political consultant Jeff Bell.
• Mississippi: The one that everyone's said they're watching, and as it turns out, it may well have been. Sen. Thad Cochran leads state senator Chris McDaniel by 600 votes with 32% of the vote in--but it may not be enough to avoid a grueling runoff campaign, since neither have 50% thanks to Thomas Carey, who has 1.6% of the vote. Cochran leads McDaniel 49.6-48.8. Meanwhile, former Democratic U.S. Rep. Travis Childers has easily won the Democratic nomination.

The Mississippi Update

So far polling has shown both incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran and state senator Chris McDaniel both polling well below the 50% required to avoid a runoff (which is entirely possible, considering that a third candidate, Thomas Carey, is in the race (but isn't being talked about at all by the media and has only pulled in single-digits in the polls). 

A few things to note:

• Sen. Cochran just barely edges out McDaniel in my average, 44-43. Statistically, it's a dead heat.
• However, since an apparent eleventh-hour polling surge for McDaniel, the Tea Party-backed state senator has polled much more consistently than Sen. Cochran. McDaniel's poll numbers have been above 40% since April, while Sen. Cochran's have not broken 45% since then. This is a contrast from the six months prior, in which McDaniel never broke 40% and Sen. Cochran had polled above 50% multiple times.
• Incumbency is important--there are quite a few undecided voters that will probably largely break for Sen. Cochran based on name recognition, which, if anything, is the thing that will help him avoid a runoff. However, I believe the importance of incumbency drops sharply as election day approaches--by that time incumbency should have translated into leads in the polls. If anything, Sen. Cochran's poll numbers have only gone down.

Because of all this, I think this primary election will be too close to call. If I were to be specific about it, I'd say that Sen. Cochran will come in first but with less than 50% of the vote--meaning a runoff election between Sen. Cochran and McDaniel on June 24.

Super Tuesday Mk. II and Quick Ratings Update: June 1, 2014

Normally I make the necessary rating changes at the end of the month; however, we have another Super Tuesday coming up, so we'll hold off on that until afterward in case we have any primary surprises. Not that we had any on the last Super Tuesday (May 20), but still. Primaries are going to be held in the following states: