The Mississippi Update

So far polling has shown both incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran and state senator Chris McDaniel both polling well below the 50% required to avoid a runoff (which is entirely possible, considering that a third candidate, Thomas Carey, is in the race (but isn't being talked about at all by the media and has only pulled in single-digits in the polls). 

A few things to note:

• Sen. Cochran just barely edges out McDaniel in my average, 44-43. Statistically, it's a dead heat.
• However, since an apparent eleventh-hour polling surge for McDaniel, the Tea Party-backed state senator has polled much more consistently than Sen. Cochran. McDaniel's poll numbers have been above 40% since April, while Sen. Cochran's have not broken 45% since then. This is a contrast from the six months prior, in which McDaniel never broke 40% and Sen. Cochran had polled above 50% multiple times.
• Incumbency is important--there are quite a few undecided voters that will probably largely break for Sen. Cochran based on name recognition, which, if anything, is the thing that will help him avoid a runoff. However, I believe the importance of incumbency drops sharply as election day approaches--by that time incumbency should have translated into leads in the polls. If anything, Sen. Cochran's poll numbers have only gone down.

Because of all this, I think this primary election will be too close to call. If I were to be specific about it, I'd say that Sen. Cochran will come in first but with less than 50% of the vote--meaning a runoff election between Sen. Cochran and McDaniel on June 24.